THE Democratic wave that propelled the party to surprise victories in special elections in Alabama and Pennsylvania seems unlikely to reach Arizona’s eighth congressional district. In a special election on April 24th, voters will choose a successor to Trent Franks, who resigned in December following revelations that he had discussed surrogacy with two female staffers. This week, a poll by Emerson College showed the candidates neck-and-neck. But early voting, by which a majority of votes in this election will be cast, suggests a much higher turnout among Republicans than Democrats.
The Republican Party has a clear advantage in Arizona’s eighth, a suburban area north and west of Phoenix: it has 80,000 more registered members than the Democratic Party. The area hasn’t sent a Democrat to Congress since 1980 and in 2016 Donald Trump won the district by 21 percentage points. That’s about the same margin by which Mr Trump won Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district, where Conor Lamb, a Democrat, stormed to surprise victory in...Continue reading
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