Thursday, 16 November 2017

Explaining turnout in Latin American elections

THE flurry of elections coming up in Latin America will not only choose new leaders. It will also provide a check-up on the health of democracy itself, which in most countries on the continent has been in place for only a few decades. Latin Americans appear to be losing some of their enthusiasm for it. In the latest edition of the region-wide survey conducted annually by Latinobarómetro, a pollster based in Chile, the share of respondents saying democracy is the best form of government hit its lowest level in a decade, at 53% (in 2010 it was 61%). The proportion saying they had no preference for democracy over other systems reached an all-time high of 25%, up from 16% in 2010.

How worrying is this for Latin American democracy? One indicator will be voter turnout. Participation is only a rough proxy for political vibrancy. Some citizens might stay home because they are satisfied with their government and confident that its policies will continue. Others might vote because they expect that a clientelistic government will reward its backers.

Nonetheless, there is a rough consensus among political scientists that healthy democracies and high turnout often go hand in hand. When turnout is high, politicians seeking re-election need to address more people’s concerns. This is particularly pressing in Latin America, where the poor and uneducated are least likely...Continue reading

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