THE polls have tightened since the news, late last week, of fresh e-mail difficulties for Hillary Clinton, but the Democratic nominee still seems likely to win the White House on November 8th. If she is victorious, however, Mrs Clinton is likely to take the helm of a divided government.
For while Democrats still have a chance at wresting control of the Senate—punters peg their chances at 62%—something more dramatic would be needed to give them the House of Representatives, where their hopes are deemed to be about one in ten. As Barack Obama knows well, passing legislation through a recalcitrant Republican opposition, as Mrs Clinton is almost sure to face, can be a difficult undertaking.
The lack of polling at the house-district level makes empirical forecasting difficult. Nonetheless qualitative projections, given by experts, give some guidance. Even in an American election as tumultuous as this, 213...Continue reading
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