Countdown

SO MUCH for Hillary Clinton’s predicted cake-walk. So much for steady nerves. As the countdown of days to the most divisive general election of recent times dropped into single figures, a surge of support for Donald Trump made the contest appear suddenly much closer. 

As The Economist went to press, Mrs Clinton’s lead, which stood at seven percentage points in mid-October, had fallen to less than two points in an aggregate of recent polls. In other words, Mrs Clinton has a clear advantage, but Mr Trump could yet win this.

To get the requisite 270 electoral-college votes, he probably needs to win all the states Mitt Romney won in 2012—including North Carolina, where he has been trailing for most of the past few weeks—plus almost all the battleground states where he looks even competitive. They include Florida and Ohio, which would be daunting swing states even for a Republican less unsavoury to moderates and unpopular among non-whites than Mr Trump is. Mrs Clinton appears to have an easier path. Merely tallying those states that are safely Democratic gets her to 226 in the electoral college,...Continue reading

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