ON OCTOBER 22nd, Donald Trump received his first major newspaper endorsement, from the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Nevada’s largest publication. With only five days left before the election, the political preferences of the state’s population are harder to gauge.
Recent polls in Nevada, taken after James Comey, the director of the FBI suggested on October 28th that he might have new evidence relating to the inquiry into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server, appear to show that Mr Trump and Mrs Clinton are neck-and-neck to win the state’s six electoral votes. But polling in the Silver State is notoriously tricky. In the 2008 Republican primary, the polling average suggested that Mitt Romney held just a five-point lead over John McCain. Mr Romney ended up trouncing Mr McCain by 38 points. In the general election that year, a batch of polls averaged by Real Clear Politics, a political news website, suggested Barack Obama would win Nevada by 6.5 points. He triumphed by 12.5 points. Most polls predicted that Nevada senator Harry Reid would lose when he ran for reelection in 2010. He prevailed by six points.
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