JUAN MANUEL SANTOS, Colombia’s president, took a gamble with his country’s future on October 2nd, and lost. After four years of talks in Havana, negotiators from his government and the FARC rebel army had reached an agreement to end a 52-year war, Latin America’s longest-running conflict. Mr Santos asked voters to approve it in a referendum, which was held this weekend. By a very slim margin, they said “No”. That shocking result leaves the peace process in limbo, plunges the country into uncertainty and weakens the president. Both sides have said they will honour, for the time being at least, the ceasefires they declared this summer. But it is far from clear whether and how the truce can be sustained over the long run.
The government did not see defeat coming. In a recent interview with The Economist Mr Santos said he was certain the “Yes” camp would win, and seemed unconcerned about the margin of victory. “You win with half, plus one,” he said. The margin of defeat was almost that narrow: “No” won 50.2% of the vote. Turnout was low; just 13m of Colombia’s 35m voters went to the polls. Hurricane Matthew probably...Continue reading
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