SCAN the Latin American newspapers and it is hard to find much sign of a convincing economic recovery. True, Brazil’s industrial production is perking up after a two-year slump. Mexico’s energy reform is starting to pay off, at last, with a big new oil discovery by an international consortium. And Peruvian restaurateurs celebrated “National Char-roasted Chicken” day on July 16th, hoping to dispatch a million birds, up from last year’s 720,000.
Otherwise, animal spirits are in short supply. After five years of deceleration and one of recession, Latin America should register modest economic growth of 1-1.5% this year, according to forecasters. The picture varies from country to country. The return to aggregate growth is largely thanks to Brazil and Argentina, which are coming out of recessions. Venezuela’s economy is collapsing. Mexico, Chile, Colombia and Peru are expanding at a sluggish rate of 2-3%. Only in Central America, the Dominican Republic and Bolivia is growth a respectable...Continue reading
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