THE faded modernist façades along Copacabana’s beachfront hark back to Brazil’s optimistic past. The seaside promenade, where walking sticks outnumber G-strings, offers a glimpse of its demographic future. A quarter of the inhabitants of this part of Rio de Janeiro are 65 or older, making it one of the oldest places in Brazil. But the rest of the country is catching up fast, thanks to a drop in birth rates and rising life expectancy. Over-65s, who make up 8.5% of the population now, will reach Copacabana’s share by 2050. The country is dangerously unprepared for that shock.
To see why, visit the Copacabana branch of the National Institute of Social Security (INSS), which administers state pensions for Brazilians employed in the private sector. Elizete Ribeiro, a vivacious masseuse, does not look ready to be pensioned off. She is just 56 years old. But, having paid into the system for 30 years, she is entitled to a basic pension worth the minimum wage (937 reais, or $304, a month). The lawyer helping her, Jorge Freire, benefits from a separate public-sector scheme. He retired as an employee of Rio de Janeiro’s state court system when he was...Continue reading
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