WHEN Hillary Clinton was eight percentage points up on Donald Trump last month, it seemed nothing, except perhaps a major national security or law-and-order emergency, which generally helps Republicans, or a health scare for Mrs Clinton, could make the race competitive.
Then on September 11th Mrs Clinton collapsed on a New York street; it was later revealed that she had contracted pneumonia. On September 18th a bomb blast in Manhattan injured 31 people, for which an Afghan-American was later shot and arrested. And on September 22nd the governor of North Carolina declared a state of emergency in the city of Charlotte, after (yet another) killing of an, allegedly unarmed, black man by police sparked violent protests, including the shooting of a black protester.
Mrs Clinton is now ahead by two points, in an average of recent polls—well within the margin of error. Analysis of the polls by FiveThirtyEight, a data journalism website, gives her only a 58% chance of beating Mr Trump on November 8th.
The unforeseen disasters are not the only reason for the tightening polls. Mrs Clinton, it appears, had been benefitting...Continue reading
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